Christmas night brought my team (“Michigan Go Blue”) a season-long fantasy football championship. Going into the Championship weekend against a team that had defeated me handily earlier in the season, ESPN’s analytics had the game as a coin flip. Fortunately, my team saved its best performance for when it mattered most. Scoring 210 points was 30 points more than any previous league team scored in any week during the year. Despite the GM of “Michigan Go Blue” making a rookie mistake and the draft gods not cooperating, a Championship Trophy was hoisted in the Bechler household. Well, actually there was no trophy but a Tiger Woods fist pump did ensue.
The NFL regular season only has two more weeks to it but that doesn’t mean week 16 is any less important. A number of teams are still fighting for a playoff spot or home-field advantage. There are 1 game on Thursday night, 11 games on Saturday (Christmas Eve day), 3 games on Christmas Sunday and 1 game on Monday night. Here are a few thoughts related to the main slate of games on Saturday. As usual, have fun and use this information to make the best decision for you.
Those who don’t know the past are doomed to repeat it. One of the best ways to improve is to analyze what you’ve done previously. Large field tournaments that pay out a million dollars are quite sexy but the smart play for most amateur DFS players are cash games (H2H’s, 50-50’s, Double Up’s). Below is a look back at my cash game lineup from Week 14. An accurate analysis can provide a foundation for future winnings.
Eli Manning (QB) – He was practically free at only $500 above the minimum. He was at home and though Dallas was 10-1, they don’t have a dominate pass defense. Going against a strong run defense and being a slight home-underdog, I believed the Giants would take to the air. The Cowboys had given up 20 TD’s and an average of 285 passing yards to opponents this year. I personally don’t like Eli. I don’t like the Giants. He hasn’t had a particularly strong fantasy season so far with an average of 16.5 DK points, but he had 19.5 points in the first meeting and had 5 straight games of 13+ points so it is not like he’s Ryan Fitzpatrick. I typically pay down at quarterback because the gap between the top-tier performers and lower-tier performers is not as wide as RB or WR. Did I mention he was PRACTICALLY FREE?!? Man, I still don’t like Eli. Continue reading “TRUST THE PROCESS: Week 14 Cash Game Lineup”
Unless you were out of the country saving the rain forests or brokering peace in the Middle East then you know that Le’Veon Bell had the 4th best fantasy performance of all-time in Week 14 (according to DraftKings). He mollywhopped the Ryan Brothers and their Buffalo Bills so bad that Rex was questioning even his choice of quarterback, as if Tyrod Taylor had anything to do with giving up 298 yards and 3 touchdowns. Naturally, all of the monday morning quarterbacks hit the twittersfere with the “I can’t believe you played David Johnson over Le’Veon Bell, he was the stone-cold Steve Austin nuts” or something similar to that. However, that it is a dangerous though to have in fantasy sports. Those of us that play fantasy sports fall into this trap often. We use the outcomes to make definitive statements. We become results-oriented. We dwell on “coulda, shoulda, woulda”.