Those who don’t know the past are doomed to repeat it. One of the best ways to improve is to analyze what you’ve done previously. Large field tournaments that pay out a million dollars are quite sexy but the smart play for most DFS players are cash games (H2H’s, 50-50’s, Double Up’s). Cash games are the best way to build up your bankroll. Below is a look back at my cash game lineup from Week 14 in order to be better in Week 15. An accurate analysis can provide a foundation for future winnings.
This was the most straight-forward lineup construction of the year as far as I was concerned. Certainly, there were some decisions to be made but I tried not to overthink it. I was very confident going into Sunday’s games and ended up having my best cash-game score of the year with 183 DK points. The ironic thing was that my best GPP score of the day was only 139 so I definitely need to examine my GPP process a little bit. I played in 15 GPPs and cashed in exactly one as I took 60th in the Fantasy Edge Listener League with my cash game lineup. In H2H’s I won 90.9% of my matchups. What follows is my rationale for why I made the decisions that i did with my cash game lineup.
DeShone Kizer (QB) – I almost went with Gabbert because of the soft Tennessee funnel defense but in the end got locked on to Kizer because of his ability to make things happen with his feet. He is a good bet to get 3-4 rushing points with upside for more if he scores a rushing touchdown. He has made bad decisions and turned the ball over more than any other quarterback this year but i actually put money on the Browns to win and felt that everything was coming together. At $4,900 it was hard to see him hurting me too badly.
Giovanni Bernard (RB) – He was a free square at $3,100. Joe Mixon was out with a concussion and that left Bernard as the only back. He already has a decent floor because of his pass-catching role. He only had to catch 4-5 passes and get 40-50 yards of total offense to reach value. I actually played him in 100% of my lineups (GPPs and H2Hs).
Todd Gurley (RB) – I don’t know if he’d reach value but chances were good that he’d come close. He is game-flow independent so whether the Rams are ahead or behind, he should still be utilized. He is a poor-man’s LeVeon Bell or David Johnson and I play them whenever possible. He is a good bet to get you 8-10 points just in the passing game alone. He has a pretty high ceiling, as well.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR) – He is a target monster and is extremely talented. Oh yeah, he is also going against the lowly 49ers who are the fastest paced team in the NFL. There should be fireworks and I want Hopkins. He could be in line for an explosion in this game.
Keenan Allen (WR) – I like Keenan Allen a lot, especially for cash. He is usually a pretty safe play but in the last three weeks he is nearly unstoppable. He’s the first receiver to ever have three consecutive games of 10-plus catches, 100-plus yards and one-plus TDs. The Redskins are shaky right now on defense. Sign me up!
Josh Gordon (WR) – He was targeted 11 times in his first game back in two years. He is big, strong, fast and has good hands. He is playing against a bad Green Bay Packers defense. I see Kizer force-feeding him the ball. I think that he is over hyped in DFS circles for this week and see a lot of ways that he can fail (therefore he is a fade in GPPs where I will instead be pivoting to teammate Cory Coleman or Jags Marqise Lee). For cash, he is a plug-and-play. I think he will do well and don’t want to be going against him in a H2H matchup. At the least, i figure he is a blocking play that I can live with.
Trey Burton (TE) – I didn’t expect Ertz to play but he wasn’t officially ruled out by lock time. I played doctor and predicted that he would be out since he hadn’t practiced or been cleared yet from concussion protocol up to that point. The matchup wasn’t great but Burton is very athletic and at $2,900 it is hard to fail. If Ertz had played in that late game, I didn’t really leave myself an out that I liked so Burton would have become a zero most likely as I would be unwilling to change my lineup at the last minute and take either Gurley or Keenan out of my lineup to make a higher priced TE work.
Bills (DST) – I have liked the Chargers and Jaguars most of the year. I couldn’t get up to either of them so I settled on the Bills. I don’t hate the play since they are going against the worst team in the league at protecting the quarterback. This was a bad week for defenses so I took the cheapest team that i could stomach.
Alred Morris (Flex) – Technically Gurley was my flex because he was playing the late game but Morris’ spot was the last one in. I was considering Marqise Lee, Sterline Shephard, Lamar Miller and even a 2v2 where I would drop Gordon and pick up Larry Fitzgerald or Golden Tate along with Dede Westbrook. In the end, I felt that Dallas would win and that they’d ride Morris again this week like they did last week in giving him 27 carries. I didn’t like this play but i felt less secure with the other options I was considering. Too many things could go wrong with all of the other options. The worst that would go wrong with Morris is that he doesn’t score a touchdown and falls just short of value.
There is not much I’d do differently if I had to do it all over again. I might have tried to get too cute with the Trey Burton situation but I think I made the right decision since I loved Keenan/Gurley. I probably should have went with Marqise Lee in the flex and moved Gurley to the RB spot instead of Morris. That would have given me the flexibility to make a decision in the late slate of games if we had gotten word that Ertz was going to play. Fortunately, i got that play right because that made much of the difference in my matchups this week.
Maybe I should have come off of The blizzard conditions in Buffalo made defensive scoring non-existent as both teams ate up clock and stuck to the run game. I am still not sure that there were any defenses that I would have felt comfortable going to bat with even knowing that the weather was going to play a factor.