Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB) – Only his mom or a Harvard alum would roster him at this point in his career and feel confident. This was purely a price play. He was the cheapest QB that I could stomach. I thought this game would be a sneaky high scoring affair.
Le’Veon Bell (RB) – The only decision I have had to make with Bell the last two years is whether to play Bell or David Johnson or both in cash. I am a dues-paying member of team jam ’em in. If he is healthy, I play him every week now that DJ is out. His floor is typically 15-20 and his ceiling is 30+.
Bilal Powell (Flex) – He was a plug and play. He has been a pass-catching back and it appeared that he would get all the volume. He probably would have been a lock at 5k for me, as well. I played him in 90% of my GPP’s as well.
Golden Tate (WR) – Over the last three weeks, he has been as consistent as one can be. He was a little more expensive than I like to normally pay for him but with 7 catches in each of his last three games and performances of 22.6, 14.6, and 21.3 his floor was pretty safe. Plus playing at home against the Browns is never a bad thing.
Marqise Lee (WR) – Process wise, this was a mistake. I really liked Lee last week but ended up going with someone else and Lee went for 21.5 DK points. I was upset and didn’t want to miss out again. At $4,100 and being the team leader in targets and averaging 16 points in the last three weeks, he is not a bad play. The problem was my recency bias and regret bias. The problem was that I locked him in and didn’t consider anyone else.
Garrett Celek (TE) – He is not a good pass-catching tight end. In fact, he only caught 14 passes in his college career. He is a good blocking tight end. He is a good football player. He is a bad fantasy football player. BUT at min. price against the flow chart Giants, who are staring in their own reality show “Tight End Makeover”, I had no problem locking him in for cash. I don’t have confidence in this position in general so if I get get a free square against a terrible TE defense, I will take it.
Los Angeles Rams (DST) – I was on the Jaguars all week until the end when I was 300 over. The Rams were my second favorite all week so I looked at it as a sign from above. Play the Rams. I don’t normally pay up at defense but I thought there were some suspect defenses in the mid-tiers. I had interest in the Bears but I really thought Green Bay might play well (crazily just like I did the previous two weeks).
Carlos Hyde (RB) – I wanted Ingram or McCoy. I couldn’t get up to McCoy. I wasn’t as sure about Ingram. I had a feeling he would go off and was a good bet for GPPs. That was a mistake as I only had 10% exposure to him in GPPs and though happened to be my highest scoring lineups. Back to Hyde, coming off a 9-catch game and having been in a scoring drought I felt he was primed for a breakout game. At the very least he had a good floor against a bad team.
Julio Jones (WR) – His price was too low and I felt he was going to bounce back from his drop the week before. Dallas has a bend but don’t break defense and figured he would see lots of targets and run after catch. The game was also the highest projected scoring game of the day. I also considered A.J. Green but don’t trust Cincinnati. I also considered paying down for Sterling Shepherd and then paying up at the Flex position for McCoy or Ingram. But in the end I thought that this would be a Mt. Saint Julio Eruption Spot.
RECAP – I know that this week was a terrible week from a scoring standpoint but it was also an easy week for me to decide on a cash lineup. Once I decided I was going to bite the bullet and pay down as usual at QB and TE, then everything kind of fell into place. The cash line in the big single-entry $250 double up was 110 points. Powell’s bust of 3.6 points didn’t hurt me because he was owned by nearly everyone. If I had to do it all over again, I would have went away from one of my favorite players, Julio Jones. I don’t like to pay up at WR in cash. I don’t want to punt like I will do at the TE position, but I normally go for mid-level guys. My typical M.O would have been to go with Shephard and then Ingram instead of Jones and Hyde. But I felt good about Jones and thought Hyde could have a nice game as well. I didn’t have any questions about those two busting. I did have concerns about both Shephard coming off of injury and Ingram going on the road and sharing usage with Kamara. The main regret that I had is that I choose to weight my entries heavily on GPPs as opposed to cash. I still won 89% of my cash and also did okay in GPPs.
Each week, thousands of DFS players are burdened with the “Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda”, but we can’t be stressed by this. Having a trustworthy process and believing in your research is a long-term +EV.
Jamy Bechler is a regular DFS player that competes under the screen name “DKJamy”. You can follow his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101.